BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Bluebird In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Badlands and Prairies has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+46%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Bluebird in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Mountain Bluebird In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.96–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+93%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.96–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±137.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.96–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.883.4
20262.10.903.4
20272.20.923.4
20282.20.943.4
20292.20.963.5

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA202024
Bull Mtn.MONTANA172021
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA172022
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA162004
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA112018
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA102024
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA102013
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA81975
MeadowdaleWYOMING81995
Reed PointMONTANA72024
Maynard CouleeMONTANA72024
MayoworthWYOMING72018
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA62019
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA62021
LeroyMONTANA52024
CusterMONTANA52019
Miles CityMONTANA52022
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA51991
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA52017
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA52024
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA52024
RoyMONTANA41989
RoundupMONTANA42023
Chuffey SpringMONTANA42022
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA42019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.