BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Bluebird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+54%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
226Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mountain Bluebird has risen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mountain Bluebird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 3.5–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–9.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 3.5–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.13.38.8
20276.13.48.9
20286.13.48.9
20296.23.48.9
20306.23.59.0

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beck 2UTAH402025
M Warner ResUTAH392025
RichfieldUTAH352019
Piceance BasinCOLORADO322012
Deadman Rd.COLORADO282025
AngoraCOLORADO272025
FayetteUTAH252025
Wray GulchCOLORADO242025
HannaUTAH232024
YampaCOLORADO222023
Grizzly RdgeUTAH222025
WalsenburgCOLORADO192025
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO192025
Baxter PassCOLORADO182024
Dixie NfUTAH182025
PecosNEW-MEXICO172017
VernalUTAH152016
AnimasCOLORADO132004
QuemadoNEW-MEXICO131997
BufordWYOMING132025
CokedaleCOLORADO122025
DinosaurCOLORADO122025
Ragged Mtn.COLORADO122025
Rifle FallsCOLORADO122025
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO122016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.