BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Bluebird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+42%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
225Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Bluebird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Mountain Bluebird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 3.5–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–9.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 3.5–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.13.48.9
20266.23.48.9
20276.23.49.0
20286.23.59.0
20296.33.59.0

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grizzly RdgeUTAH512024
AngoraCOLORADO442024
M Warner ResUTAH402024
RichfieldUTAH352019
Piceance BasinCOLORADO322012
Wray GulchCOLORADO272023
Gribbles PrkCOLORADO232024
HannaUTAH232024
YampaCOLORADO222023
DinosaurCOLORADO192024
LudlowCOLORADO192016
Beck 2UTAH192018
Deadman Rd.COLORADO182024
Baxter PassCOLORADO182024
RosevaleCOLORADO172024
PecosNEW-MEXICO172017
VernalUTAH152016
CokedaleCOLORADO142024
PowderhornCOLORADO142023
Animas 2COLORADO142018
WarbonnetWYOMING142019
TincupCOLORADO132024
AnimasCOLORADO132004
QuemadoNEW-MEXICO131997
GuffeyCOLORADO122024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.