BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Bluebird In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Sierra Nevada has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-72%Since 1971
22Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Mountain Bluebird has fallen sharply in Sierra Nevada: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.95 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029
0.66Projected 2029 index
0.00–2.095% range
±83%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.670.002.0
20260.670.002.0
20270.660.002.0
20280.660.002.0
20290.660.002.0

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Sierra Nevada.
GoumazCALIFORNIA142011
ChilcootCALIFORNIA112024
SattleyCALIFORNIA82015
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA42024
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA42017
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA32014
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA32016
GeneseeCALIFORNIA22023
RivertonCALIFORNIA22004
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA22017
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA22023
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA22024
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA22019
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA11988
WestvilleCALIFORNIA12023
DardanelleCALIFORNIA12019
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA12001
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA11984
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA12001
PaxtonCALIFORNIA12000
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA11999
CrestviewCALIFORNIA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.