BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mountain Bluebird In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Northern Rockies has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-8%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
208Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Bluebird in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Mountain Bluebird In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.2 (95% range 1.9–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.2 (95% range 1.9–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.31.94.6
20273.21.94.6
20283.21.94.6
20293.21.94.6
20303.21.94.5

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clover CreekOREGON452025
Red RockMONTANA352025
MeeteetseWYOMING222025
Green RiverWYOMING221984
PhilipsburgMONTANA172025
Donelly 2OREGON172025
ErvayWYOMING162025
Silver CreekOREGON142025
DuboisWYOMING132025
Crazy WomanWYOMING132024
ChestnutMONTANA122025
BarnhouseOREGON122025
CloverlandWASHINGTON122025
Sawtooth CtyIDAHO112014
BeaverheadMONTANA112025
MadrasOREGON112025
Crawford MtsUTAH102023
BoulderMONTANA92025
CrowheartWYOMING92021
CarterWYOMING92016
LimaMONTANA82025
WallowaOREGON82025
Patrick DrawWYOMING81980
RiversideWYOMING82025
Savery 2WYOMING82025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.