BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mountain Bluebird In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Mountain Bluebird in Northern Rockies has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-7%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
206Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mountain Bluebird in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Mountain Bluebird In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.2 (95% range 1.9–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mountain Bluebird in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.2 (95% range 1.9–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.31.94.6
20263.31.94.6
20273.31.94.6
20283.31.94.6
20293.21.94.6

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Mountain Bluebird in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MeeteetseWYOMING342024
Clover CreekOREGON322024
Mtn ViewWYOMING312024
Red RockMONTANA282024
Silver CreekOREGON222024
Green RiverWYOMING221984
Donelly 2OREGON192024
PolsonMONTANA132024
MonumentOREGON132024
Crazy WomanWYOMING132024
CloverlandWASHINGTON122024
ErvayWYOMING122024
Sawtooth CtyIDAHO112014
Pagil GulchMONTANA112024
DuboisWYOMING112024
Crawford MtsUTAH102023
Prior FlatsWYOMING102024
CrowheartWYOMING92021
Flamin GorgeWYOMING92024
CarterWYOMING92016
Rock Springs 2WYOMING92024
WoodruffUTAH82024
Patrick DrawWYOMING81980
Browns ParkCOLORADO72024
ChestnutMONTANA72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.