BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mottled Duck In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWaterfowl

Mottled Duck in Gulf Coastal Prairie has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-81%Since 1969
43Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Mottled Duck has collapsed in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mottled Duck in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029
1.1Projected 2029 index
0.00–6.995% range
±35%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.80.007.7
20261.60.007.5
20271.40.007.3
20281.30.007.1
20291.10.006.9

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Mottled Duck in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Bayside 2TEXAS512004
JuniorLOUISIANA321991
StowellTEXAS222018
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA201976
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA112019
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA102011
Loyola BeachTEXAS102009
MauriceLOUISIANA72024
Grand IsleLOUISIANA72018
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA62011
Lag AtascosaTEXAS62023
LafitteLOUISIANA51991
CreoleLOUISIANA51987
EstherLOUISIANA52024
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA52017
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS52023
RichardLOUISIANA42023
Vinton 2LOUISIANA42023
GlencoeLOUISIANA32015
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA32024
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA32001
Forked IslandLOUISIANA32024
Port AcresTEXAS32024
HackberryLOUISIANA22016
WoodlawnLOUISIANA22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.