BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mottled Duck In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsWaterfowl

Mottled Duck in Tamaulipan Brushlands has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-41%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mottled Duck in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Mottled Duck In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mottled Duck in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 223% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+223%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mottled Duck in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 223% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.310.001.4
20260.300.001.3
20270.290.001.3
20280.280.001.3
20290.270.001.3

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Mottled Duck in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HondoTEXAS62021
RaymondvilleTEXAS62023
Agua NuevaTEXAS32009
ProgresoTEXAS32011
Millett 2TEXAS32016
Mirando CityTEXAS22012
George WestTEXAS22022
El SauzTEXAS22014
KingsvilleTEXAS12019
CatarinaTEXAS12006
Encinal 2TEXAS12023
Catarina 3TEXAS12018
SejitaTEXAS12022
HeidelbergTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.