BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mottled Duck In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWaterfowl

Mottled Duck in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

-36%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mottled Duck in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Mottled Duck In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mottled Duck in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2021TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2021 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mottled Duck in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682021
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20170.090.000.21
20180.090.000.21
20190.090.000.21
20200.090.000.21
20210.080.000.21

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Mottled Duck in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RamahLOUISIANA52011
KraemerLOUISIANA32010
TippoMISSISSIPPI32012
EudoraARKANSAS22009
CarlisleLOUISIANA21968
KeystoneLOUISIANA22008
ShawLOUISIANA21980
BrousvilleLOUISIANA22015
BelairLOUISIANA22016
BerwickLOUISIANA21993
ConcordLOUISIANA22007
KelsoARKANSAS12010
RayvilleLOUISIANA11991
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.