BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Montezuma Quail In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Montezuma Quail in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-34%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Montezuma Quail in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Montezuma Quail In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Montezuma Quail in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 93% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-93%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Montezuma Quail in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 93% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.001.3
20260.060.001.3
20270.050.001.3
20280.030.001.2
20290.010.001.2

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Montezuma Quail in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Peña BlancaARIZONA42023
McnealARIZONA42015
PatagoniaARIZONA32023
SprucedaleARIZONA32023
PortalARIZONA32024
ReserveNEW-MEXICO32023
AmadoARIZONA22023
DragoonARIZONA21999
RuckerARIZONA22009
AlpineARIZONA12023
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12018
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12023
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.