BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mexican Whip-poor-will In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Mexican Whip-poor-will in Sierra Madre Occidental has edged up: up 22% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

+22%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mexican Whip-poor-will in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Mexican Whip-poor-will In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mexican Whip-poor-will in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 56% by 2028 — from 0.23 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mexican Whip-poor-will in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 56% by 2028 — from 0.23 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.100.000.23
20250.100.000.23
20260.100.000.23
20270.100.000.23
20280.100.000.23

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Mexican Whip-poor-will in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt. GrahamARIZONA42023
ReserveNEW-MEXICO22007
BlueARIZONA11990
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA12013
AlpineARIZONA12018
SprucedaleARIZONA12023
DragoonARIZONA12005
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.