BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mexican Jay In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Mexican Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-53%Since 1970
16Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Mexican Jay has fallen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mexican Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2029
2.4Projected 2029 index
0.00–1295% range
±20.1%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.20.0013
20263.00.0013
20272.80.0012
20282.60.0012
20292.40.0012

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Mexican Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental.
RuckerARIZONA942009
DragoonARIZONA692009
PortalARIZONA322024
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA202021
PatagoniaARIZONA172024
SunizonaARIZONA141997
Peña BlancaARIZONA132024
Aztec PeakARIZONA81978
Carr MtnARIZONA82022
Forest LakesARIZONA62016
Sunizona 2ARIZONA52024
BlueARIZONA41989
SprucedaleARIZONA42023
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO41994
RedingtonARIZONA22023
Mt. GrahamARIZONA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.