BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mexican Jay In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Mexican Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-45%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mexican Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Mexican Jay In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mexican Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mexican Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.10.0013
20272.90.0012
20282.70.0012
20292.60.0012
20302.40.0012

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Mexican Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RuckerARIZONA942009
DragoonARIZONA692009
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA462025
SprucedaleARIZONA422025
PortalARIZONA212025
Peña BlancaARIZONA172025
SunizonaARIZONA141997
PatagoniaARIZONA102025
Aztec PeakARIZONA81978
Forest LakesARIZONA62016
Carr MtnARIZONA52025
BlueARIZONA41989
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO41994
Sunizona 2ARIZONA32025
RedingtonARIZONA22023
Mt. GrahamARIZONA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.