BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mexican Duck In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertWaterfowl

Mexican Duck in Chihuahuan Desert has increased: up 43% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+43%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mexican Duck in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Mexican Duck In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mexican Duck in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 172% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+172%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mexican Duck in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 172% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.390.001.1
20260.390.001.1
20270.380.001.1
20280.380.001.1
20290.380.001.1

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Mexican Duck in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PresidioTEXAS112022
MesillaNEW-MEXICO92000
Bear MtnTEXAS62005
GageNEW-MEXICO42009
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS42009
RodeoNEW-MEXICO22017
Red RockNEW-MEXICO22013
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO22016
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO22024
SlaughterTEXAS22014
Casa PiedraTEXAS22023
Sierra BlancTEXAS22014
Van HornTEXAS22019
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS22021
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO12024
Coyanda DrawTEXAS12021
CanutilloTEXAS12024
MarathonTEXAS12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.