BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Marsh Wren In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Marsh Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+13%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Marsh Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Marsh Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 272% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±776.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+272%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.44Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±776.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Marsh Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 272% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±776.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.440.001.2
20260.440.001.2
20270.440.001.2
20280.440.001.2
20290.440.001.2

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Marsh Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crescent LkNEBRASKA292017
NenzelNEBRASKA62024
ChambersNEBRASKA42023
AlbertKANSAS32014
Piester LakeNEBRASKA31992
MullenNEBRASKA32023
BrownleeNEBRASKA22024
St JohnKANSAS12003
SolomonKANSAS11991
SurpriseNEBRASKA12021
Swan LakeNEBRASKA12000
JohnstownNEBRASKA11999
KennedyNEBRASKA12022
GordonNEBRASKA12011
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.