BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Marsh Wren In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Marsh Wren in Badlands and Prairies has risen sharply: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+59%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Marsh Wren has risen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Marsh Wren in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±155.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±155.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Marsh Wren in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±155.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.14
20260.060.000.14
20270.060.000.14
20280.060.000.14
20290.060.000.14

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Marsh Wren in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA52016
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA42002
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA32018
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA31995
Two DotMONTANA22018
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA22014
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA22024
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA22011
HighwoodMONTANA12008
BrusettMONTANA12017
BrandenbergMONTANA11974
Miles CityMONTANA12019
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA12003
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA12021
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA12018
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA12008
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA12001
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA12022
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA12013
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA12018
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA12005
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA12015
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA11995
Harland FlatWYOMING12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.