BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Marbled Murrelet In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Marbled Murrelet in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 26× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

26×Since 1977
36Routes In Region
46Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Marbled Murrelet has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 26× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Marbled Murrelet in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2029
1.0Projected 2029 index
0.00–3.395% range
±74.9%Backtest error
19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.990.003.3
20261.000.003.3
20271.000.003.3
20281.00.003.3
20291.00.003.3

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Marbled Murrelet in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
SitkaALASKA1412024
PetersburgALASKA1061987
Juneau AltALASKA301986
Warm BeachWASHINGTON272002
Whale PassALASKA242014
Redwood N.P. 2CALIFORNIA192013
Chichagof IsALASKA142024
Thorne BayALASKA92012
SkagwayALASKA82013
CordovaALASKA52022
HoonahALASKA52023
KetchikanALASKA42022
Zimovia StrtALASKA42024
HainesALASKA32024
YakutatALASKA32023
Harlequin L.ALASKA22024
ZaremboALASKA22021
Kuiu IslandALASKA22010
HoneydewCALIFORNIA21982
HolmesCALIFORNIA22022
WaldportOREGON21994
Myrtle GroveOREGON22001
Klickitat MtOREGON21994
Riley PeakOREGON22016
JuneauALASKA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.