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Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Marbled Murrelet In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestSeabirds

Marbled Murrelet in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 25× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

25×Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Marbled Murrelet in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Marbled Murrelet In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Marbled Murrelet in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 108% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+108%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.95Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Marbled Murrelet in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 108% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.950.003.2
20270.950.003.2
20280.950.003.2
20290.950.003.2
20300.950.003.2

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Marbled Murrelet in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SitkaALASKA1412024
PetersburgALASKA1061987
Juneau AltALASKA301986
Warm BeachWASHINGTON272002
Whale PassALASKA242014
Redwood N.P. 2CALIFORNIA192013
Chichagof IsALASKA142024
HainesALASKA102025
Thorne BayALASKA92012
SkagwayALASKA82013
JuneauALASKA62025
CraigALASKA62025
CordovaALASKA52022
HoonahALASKA52023
KetchikanALASKA42022
Mitkof IsleALASKA42025
YakutatALASKA32023
Zimovia StrtALASKA32025
HolmesCALIFORNIA32025
Harlequin L.ALASKA22024
ZaremboALASKA22021
Kuiu IslandALASKA22010
HoneydewCALIFORNIA21982
WaldportOREGON21994
Myrtle GroveOREGON22001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.