BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Magnolia Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Magnolia Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 625% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+625%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
132Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Magnolia Warbler has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 625% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Magnolia Warbler In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 0.74 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.66–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.66–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 0.74 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.66–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.890.601.2
20270.900.621.2
20280.910.631.2
20290.930.651.2
20300.940.661.2

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Magnolia Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glade RunWEST-VIRGINIA212002
GladyWEST-VIRGINIA202025
Glade Run 2WEST-VIRGINIA152025
BemisWEST-VIRGINIA132025
LoguePENNSYLVANIA122025
Green BankWEST-VIRGINIA92025
McdonoughNEW-YORK72017
BusickNORTH-CAROLINA71996
Mawr GlenPENNSYLVANIA72025
BowdenWEST-VIRGINIA72025
RidgwayPENNSYLVANIA62018
EldredPENNSYLVANIA62022
Marsh HillPENNSYLVANIA62025
JenningsMARYLAND52025
OxfordNEW-YORK51975
Vestal CtrNEW-YORK52019
N Pine GrovePENNSYLVANIA52025
Cherry SprsPENNSYLVANIA52025
SusquehannaPENNSYLVANIA52025
HonesdalePENNSYLVANIA42017
StarlightPENNSYLVANIA41999
Pocono Summit 2PENNSYLVANIA42006
CanaanWEST-VIRGINIA42025
Three ForksWEST-VIRGINIA42025
MeadowvilleWEST-VIRGINIA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.