BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Magnolia Warbler In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Magnolia Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: up 0% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+0%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Magnolia Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Magnolia Warbler In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.010.000.03
20230.010.000.03
20240.010.000.03
20250.010.000.03
20260.010.000.03

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Magnolia Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN21993
MatherWISCONSIN22000
ScottvilleMICHIGAN11983
BravoMICHIGAN12008
MontereyMICHIGAN12006
RemusMICHIGAN12018
DeckervilleMICHIGAN11992
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN12013
PrincetonMINNESOTA12004
LoraineWISCONSIN12018
CumberlandWISCONSIN12018
MerrillWISCONSIN11998
Stevens PtWISCONSIN12019
ManitowocWISCONSIN12000
Pigeon CreekWISCONSIN12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.