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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Magnolia Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Magnolia Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
150Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Magnolia Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Magnolia Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 130% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 1.4–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±161.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+130%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±161.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 130% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 1.4–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±161.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.81.46.3
20263.81.46.3
20273.91.46.3
20283.91.46.3
20293.91.46.3

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Magnolia Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pillsbury PdMAINE661968
NorthfieldMAINE461981
Heron LakeMAINE332003
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE312000
SabattisNEW-YORK291983
Big TwentyMAINE272008
Forest StaMAINE262000
Weeks BrookMAINE212016
Clayton LakeMAINE202008
Big Twenty 2MAINE192009
InletNEW-YORK192017
YankeetuladiMAINE172009
WaiteMAINE161977
St DavidMAINE152005
AshlandMAINE142008
Wilson MillsMAINE132024
TelosMAINE132006
NesowadnehunMAINE132021
WytopitlockMAINE121998
Horse MtnMAINE122011
Blue Ridge SNEW-YORK122010
LudlowMAINE101998
Ft FairfieldMAINE102005
AndoverMAINE102021
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE102017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.