BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Magnolia Warbler In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Magnolia Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 578% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+578%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Magnolia Warbler has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 578% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Magnolia Warbler In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.3–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Magnolia Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.3–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.02.13.8
20273.02.23.8
20283.02.23.9
20293.12.23.9
20303.12.33.9

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Magnolia Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA262025
Hart LakeMINNESOTA232025
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA202025
LockportMINNESOTA172025
JordanMINNESOTA172025
Ned LakeMICHIGAN82025
BabbittMINNESOTA82025
Land O LakesWISCONSIN82016
HermanMICHIGAN72022
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN72025
Land O' Lakes 2WISCONSIN72025
EnsignMICHIGAN52010
HovlandMINNESOTA52025
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA52022
ChaffeyWISCONSIN52025
OntonagonMICHIGAN42019
IshpemingMICHIGAN42025
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN42025
TahquamenonMICHIGAN42025
Betchler LksMICHIGAN42024
CohassetMINNESOTA42018
BootjackMICHIGAN32023
RacoMICHIGAN32025
Pine RiverMICHIGAN32018
McgregorMINNESOTA32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.