BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

MacGillivray's Warbler In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

MacGillivray's Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-47%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
132Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for MacGillivray's Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

MacGillivray's Warbler In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, MacGillivray's Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.79–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.79–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, MacGillivray's Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.79–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.40.883.8
20272.30.863.8
20282.30.833.8
20292.30.813.8
20302.30.793.7

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording MacGillivray's Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MccloudCALIFORNIA242021
Pilot CreekCALIFORNIA191996
Cool CampOREGON182013
LoraneOREGON162025
Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON162025
Martins FyCALIFORNIA152009
CougarWASHINGTON132023
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA112019
MontesandWASHINGTON112024
McchordWASHINGTON112015
HyderALASKA102009
OrleansCALIFORNIA102012
Days CreekOREGON102025
RuchOREGON102023
Klickitat MtOREGON91996
Cedar FallsWASHINGTON92014
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA82022
Secret ValOREGON82025
SelmaOREGON82025
Hurricane RgWASHINGTON72025
MolallaOREGON62025
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA52012
Lonesome RdgCALIFORNIA52014
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA52025
ProspectOREGON52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.