BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Louisiana Waterthrush In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 178% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+178%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
189Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Louisiana Waterthrush has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 178% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.16–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.16–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.150.37
20260.260.160.37
20270.270.160.37
20280.270.160.37
20290.270.160.37

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EscatawpaALABAMA51988
SpeedNORTH-CAROLINA42024
Big SandyTENNESSEE42024
EufaulaALABAMA32021
HendersonGEORGIA32024
NorwoodLOUISIANA32022
Trace CentralMISSISSIPPI32016
HamletNORTH-CAROLINA32022
RheasvilleNORTH-CAROLINA32017
MansfieldTENNESSEE32024
St FlorianALABAMA21993
GreensboroALABAMA22022
BillingsleyALABAMA22015
CottontonALABAMA22024
SouthALABAMA22008
MillryALABAMA22000
JenaALABAMA22023
WedgeworthALABAMA22018
VernonALABAMA22021
GastonburgALABAMA22021
Seminole HlsFLORIDA21999
HawkinsvilleGEORGIA21998
DeepstepGEORGIA22021
UnionGEORGIA22023
ColumbiaMISSISSIPPI22015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.