BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Louisiana Waterthrush In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-12%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Louisiana Waterthrush in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Louisiana Waterthrush In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.050.000.12
20270.050.000.12
20280.050.000.12
20290.050.000.12
20300.050.000.12

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BardwellKENTUCKY21994
PawpawTENNESSEE21969
HughesARKANSAS12019
AugustaARKANSAS11988
SaffellARKANSAS12018
MaynardARKANSAS12006
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS12025
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY12025
ShawLOUISIANA12012
FloydLOUISIANA12011
FrogmoreLOUISIANA12006
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA12013
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA11987
CommerceMISSISSIPPI11989
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI12015
TippoMISSISSIPPI11996
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI12021
DeventerMISSOURI11988
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI12005
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE12016
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.