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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Louisiana Waterthrush In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-17%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Louisiana Waterthrush in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Louisiana Waterthrush In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.05–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.05–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.260.050.47
20270.260.050.47
20280.260.050.47
20290.260.050.47
20300.260.050.47

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StarkARKANSAS42025
NanceARKANSAS42025
HopeARKANSAS31998
Mt. HermanOKLAHOMA32021
AshdownARKANSAS22016
CrowsARKANSAS21988
PoyenARKANSAS22002
Dry ForkARKANSAS22022
Magazine MtnARKANSAS22025
Fort PolkLOUISIANA21973
CheniereLOUISIANA22025
Big CedarOKLAHOMA22024
BlancoOKLAHOMA22016
CanadianOKLAHOMA21987
BethelOKLAHOMA22025
CrossroadsTEXAS21977
Union HillTEXAS21995
Mt. SelmanTEXAS22001
Old MiloARKANSAS12024
RamseyARKANSAS11997
Locust BayouARKANSAS12017
StampsARKANSAS11985
HollywoodARKANSAS11998
BlakelyARKANSAS11999
WaldronARKANSAS12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.