BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Louisiana Waterthrush In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in Central Hardwoods has risen sharply: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+71%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Louisiana Waterthrush has risen sharply in Central Hardwoods: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Louisiana Waterthrush In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.50–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.50–0.9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.50–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.670.470.87
20260.680.470.88
20270.680.480.88
20280.690.490.89
20290.700.500.90

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CascadeMISSOURI42024
JoyKENTUCKY32023
BarksMISSOURI32024
RomeOHIO32024
Pond CreekTENNESSEE32024
CollinwoodTENNESSEE32024
ElkmontALABAMA22024
ComptonARKANSAS22022
MarshallARKANSAS22021
RudyARKANSAS22024
DelwoodILLINOIS22024
Cave In RockILLINOIS22023
CorydonINDIANA22024
VevayINDIANA22018
CantonKENTUCKY22018
MerrimacKENTUCKY22024
DrakesboroKENTUCKY21993
Daniel BooneKENTUCKY21988
Levee 2KENTUCKY22017
Mammoth CaveKENTUCKY22014
CassvilleMISSOURI22011
SyracuseMISSOURI22024
WilliamsvillMISSOURI22024
CraneMISSOURI22024
MarshfieldMISSOURI22017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.