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Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Louisiana Waterthrush In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in Central Hardwoods has risen sharply: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+57%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
131Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Louisiana Waterthrush has risen sharply in Central Hardwoods: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Louisiana Waterthrush In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 0.51 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.49–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–0.9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 0.51 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.49–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.660.460.87
20270.670.470.87
20280.680.480.88
20290.690.480.89
20300.690.490.90

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pond CreekTENNESSEE52025
BarksMISSOURI42025
Indian SpgsINDIANA32025
JoyKENTUCKY32023
CascadeMISSOURI32025
CollinwoodTENNESSEE32025
ComptonARKANSAS22022
MarshallARKANSAS22021
Ozark NfARKANSAS22025
Cave In RockILLINOIS22023
CorydonINDIANA22025
VevayINDIANA22018
HoosierINDIANA22025
CantonKENTUCKY22018
MerrimacKENTUCKY22024
DrakesboroKENTUCKY21993
Daniel BooneKENTUCKY21988
Levee 2KENTUCKY22017
Mammoth CaveKENTUCKY22014
CassvilleMISSOURI22011
SyracuseMISSOURI22024
WilliamsvillMISSOURI22024
CraneMISSOURI22024
CentervilleMISSOURI22025
MarshfieldMISSOURI22017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.