BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Louisiana Waterthrush In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in Prairie Hardwood Transition has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-43%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Louisiana Waterthrush in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Louisiana Waterthrush In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.010.000.03
20250.010.000.03
20260.010.000.03
20270.010.000.03
20280.010.000.03

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indiana DuneINDIANA12023
BravoMICHIGAN12010
BeldingMICHIGAN11983
MontereyMICHIGAN12011
RemusMICHIGAN11997
New BuffaloMICHIGAN12009
AlmenaMICHIGAN12013
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA12021
HatfieldWISCONSIN11972
MatherWISCONSIN11974
ManitowocWISCONSIN11980
GreshamWISCONSIN12001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.