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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Louisiana Waterthrush In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 177% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+177%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Louisiana Waterthrush has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 177% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Louisiana Waterthrush In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.03–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.03–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.030.24
20260.140.030.24
20270.140.030.24
20280.140.030.24
20290.140.030.24

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE42023
New HartfordCONNECTICUT21986
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024
HopkintonNEW-HAMPSHIRE22019
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024
PetersburgNEW-YORK22011
WarrensburgNEW-YORK22015
MarlboroVERMONT22024
GaysvilleVERMONT22008
New HartfordCONNECTICUT12023
HartfordMAINE12009
Turner 2MAINE12024
Brownfield 2MAINE12024
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS12022
CummingtonMASSACHUSETTS12013
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS12002
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS12000
SheffieldMASSACHUSETTS12022
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS12024
Cummington 2MASSACHUSETTS12024
HancockMASSACHUSETTS12015
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE12023
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE12019
Gilmantn I WNEW-HAMPSHIRE11992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.