BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Louisiana Waterthrush In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-20%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Louisiana Waterthrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Louisiana Waterthrush In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±172.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.20
20260.100.000.21
20270.100.000.21
20280.100.000.21
20290.100.000.21

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CatskillsNEW-YORK22011
GhentNEW-YORK22016
NaplesNEW-YORK21998
ShaftsburyVERMONT22024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12018
HighlandNEW-YORK12000
W ShokanNEW-YORK12019
AusterlitzNEW-YORK12022
DuanesburgNEW-YORK12021
TrumansburgNEW-YORK12014
OrleansNEW-YORK11986
BranchportNEW-YORK12019
Canadice LNEW-YORK12021
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK12016
HamburgNEW-YORK11997
CastileNEW-YORK11984
RandolphNEW-YORK12014
SheridanNEW-YORK11970
Alder CreekNEW-YORK12002
N WilmurtNEW-YORK11986
ClintonNEW-YORK11998
ArgyleNEW-YORK12010
MiddlefieldOHIO12013
StrongsvilleOHIO11974
LenoxOHIO11979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.