Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Long-tailed Jaeger In BCR 4
Long-tailed Jaeger in BCR 4 has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1986.
-85%Since 1986
10Routes In Region
26Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Long-tailed Jaeger has collapsed in BCR 4: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1986.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Long-tailed Jaeger in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±189.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2027
0.00Projected 2027 index
0.00–0.2195% range
±189.7%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| 2024 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| 2025 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| 2026 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| 2027 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
Routes In BCR 4
| Mud River | ALASKA | 6 | 1997 |
| Kobuk River (Short) | ALASKA | 5 | 1991 |
| Kanuti Lake | ALASKA | 2 | 2006 |
| Maclaren | ALASKA | 1 | 2022 |
| Monahan | ALASKA | 1 | 2012 |
| Toklat | ALASKA | 1 | 2010 |
| Chena Hot Sp | ALASKA | 1 | 1986 |
| Kachemak | ALASKA | 1 | 2018 |
| Caribou Mtn. | ALASKA | 1 | 2007 |
| Paxson Lake | ALASKA | 1 | 1997 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.