BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 3 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Long-tailed Jaeger In BCR 3

All regionsBCR 3Generalists

Long-tailed Jaeger in BCR 3 has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

+11%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Long-tailed Jaeger in BCR 3. See the full index history below.

Long-tailed Jaeger In BCR 3 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Long-tailed Jaeger in BCR 3 is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.00–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-78%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Long-tailed Jaeger in BCR 3 is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.00–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.80.008.4
20262.70.008.3
20272.70.008.2
20282.60.008.2
20292.50.008.1

Routes In BCR 3

Routes recording Long-tailed Jaeger in BCR 3.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red DogALASKA402024
Galbraith L.ALASKA72024
UtqiagvikALASKA62023
Happy ValleyALASKA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.