Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Long-tailed Jaeger In BCR 2
Long-tailed Jaeger in BCR 2 has surged: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1989.
+202%Since 1989
14Routes In Region
34Years
Notable Signals
long arc increasecomputed index
Long-tailed Jaeger has surged in BCR 2: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1989.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Long-tailed Jaeger in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.00–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+72%Change by 2029
3.3Projected 2029 index
0.00–7.195% range
±63.1%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.3 | 0.00 | 7.1 |
| 2026 | 3.3 | 0.00 | 7.1 |
| 2027 | 3.3 | 0.00 | 7.1 |
| 2028 | 3.3 | 0.00 | 7.1 |
| 2029 | 3.3 | 0.00 | 7.1 |
Routes In BCR 2
| Nome | ALASKA | 32 | 2023 |
| Cape Nome | ALASKA | 9 | 2024 |
| St. Mary'S | ALASKA | 6 | 2014 |
| Kugarak (Short) | ALASKA | 6 | 1987 |
| Teller | ALASKA | 5 | 2024 |
| Selawik (Short) | ALASKA | 5 | 1987 |
| Council | ALASKA | 4 | 2023 |
| Gweek River | ALASKA | 3 | 1997 |
| Kotzebue | ALASKA | 3 | 2024 |
| Kotzebue (Short) | ALASKA | 3 | 1994 |
| Goodnews Bay | ALASKA | 2 | 2003 |
| King Salmon | ALASKA | 1 | 2023 |
| Salmon Lake | ALASKA | 1 | 2019 |
| Cold Bay (Short) | ALASKA | 1 | 1989 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.