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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Long-tailed Jaeger Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Long-tailed Jaeger in Alaska has surged: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+342%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Long-tailed Jaeger Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Long-tailed Jaeger has surged in Alaska: up 341% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Long-tailed Jaeger Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Long-tailed Jaeger in Alaska is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.95 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Long-tailed Jaeger in Alaska is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.95 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.690.001.5
20260.700.001.5
20270.700.001.5
20280.700.001.5
20290.710.001.5

Long-tailed Jaeger Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Long-tailed Jaeger in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Dog4020241995
Nome3220231993
Cape Nome920241993
Galbraith L.720241993
Utqiagvik620232021
Mud River619971997
St. Mary'S620141993
Kugarak (Short)619871986
Teller520241993
Kobuk River (Short)519911991
Selawik (Short)519871987
Council420231993
Gweek River319971994
Kotzebue320242001
Kotzebue (Short)319941986
Kanuti Lake220062006
Goodnews Bay220031999
Paxson Lake119971992
Maclaren120221987
Monahan120121983
Toklat120101982
Caribou Mtn.120071993
Happy Valley120211993
Salmon Lake120191993
Chena Hot Sp119861986

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.