Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Long-tailed Duck In BCR 4
Long-tailed Duck in BCR 4 has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1987.
-87%Since 1987
7Routes In Region
26Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Long-tailed Duck has collapsed in BCR 4: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1987.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Long-tailed Duck in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 100% by 2024 — from 0.07 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±155.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-100%Change by 2024
0.00Projected 2024 index
0.00–0.1995% range
±155.6%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| 2021 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| 2022 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| 2023 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| 2024 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
Routes In BCR 4
| Maclaren | ALASKA | 3 | 2019 |
| Monahan | ALASKA | 1 | 2017 |
| Toklat | ALASKA | 1 | 2015 |
| Sourdough | ALASKA | 1 | 2002 |
| Lake Louise | ALASKA | 1 | 1999 |
| Coldfoot | ALASKA | 1 | 2000 |
| Paxson Lake | ALASKA | 1 | 1996 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.