BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 3 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Long-tailed Duck In BCR 3

All regionsBCR 3Waterfowl

Long-tailed Duck in BCR 3 has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1995.

12×Since 1995
4Routes In Region
28Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Long-tailed Duck has surged in BCR 3: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1995.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Long-tailed Duck in BCR 3 is projected to rise about 440% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 0.48–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+440%Change by 2029
6.7Projected 2029 index
0.48–1395% range
±70.6%Backtest error
19932029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20255.90.0012
20266.10.0012
20276.30.0613
20286.50.2713
20296.70.4813

Routes In BCR 3

Routes recording Long-tailed Duck in BCR 3.
UtqiagvikALASKA452023
Happy ValleyALASKA32024
Galbraith L.ALASKA12024
Red DogALASKA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.