Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Long-tailed Duck In BCR 2
Long-tailed Duck in BCR 2 has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1994.
-93%Since 1994
6Routes In Region
30Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Long-tailed Duck has collapsed in BCR 2: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1994.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Long-tailed Duck in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–3.395% range
±57.6%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 3.4 |
| 2026 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 3.3 |
| 2027 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 3.3 |
| 2028 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.3 |
| 2029 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.3 |
Routes In BCR 2
| Kotzebue (Short) | ALASKA | 29 | 1994 |
| Kotzebue | ALASKA | 3 | 2024 |
| King Salmon | ALASKA | 1 | 1998 |
| Cape Nome | ALASKA | 1 | 2023 |
| Council | ALASKA | 1 | 2019 |
| Nome | ALASKA | 1 | 2023 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.