BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Long-billed Curlew In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieShorebirds

Long-billed Curlew in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-29%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Long-billed Curlew in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Long-billed Curlew In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Curlew in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±113.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Curlew in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.84
20260.140.000.83
20270.130.000.82
20280.120.000.81
20290.110.000.80

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Long-billed Curlew in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Piester LakeNEBRASKA82024
MullenNEBRASKA82023
GordonNEBRASKA52024
MisslerKANSAS31981
ArthurNEBRASKA32024
MinneapolisKANSAS21980
RinggoldNEBRASKA22024
AlmeriaNEBRASKA11992
Swan LakeNEBRASKA12005
JohnstownNEBRASKA12013
KennedyNEBRASKA12016
TableNEBRASKA11974
Crescent LkNEBRASKA12017
BrownleeNEBRASKA12024
NenzelNEBRASKA12024
BeaverOKLAHOMA11981
GraybackTEXAS11993
LakeviewTEXAS12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.