BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Loggerhead Shrike In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontGeneralists

Loggerhead Shrike in Piedmont has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-93%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has collapsed in Piedmont: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Loggerhead Shrike In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Piedmont is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±352.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±352.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Piedmont is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±352.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.71
20260.000.000.71
20270.000.000.71
20280.000.000.71
20290.000.000.71

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OwingsSOUTH-CAROLINA111998
StockbridgeGEORGIA42023
HebronGEORGIA42014
CherryvilleNORTH-CAROLINA41968
WilgroveNORTH-CAROLINA42010
RutledgeGEORGIA32024
Carrs StationGEORGIA32024
BrodnaxVIRGINIA31998
MillervilleALABAMA21996
WedoweeALABAMA22004
FairplayGEORGIA21966
GrovetownGEORGIA22005
Holly SprsGEORGIA21977
Lincolnton 2GEORGIA22024
SaxapahawNORTH-CAROLINA21987
OakboroNORTH-CAROLINA22014
MadisonNORTH-CAROLINA21976
WacoNORTH-CAROLINA22022
Hulls XroadsNORTH-CAROLINA21997
DurhamNORTH-CAROLINA21995
Boiling SpgsSOUTH-CAROLINA21975
JoannaSOUTH-CAROLINA22023
AmherstVIRGINIA21977
ConcordVIRGINIA21981
MannboroVIRGINIA21982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.