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Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Loggerhead Shrike In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Loggerhead Shrike in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-95%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Loggerhead Shrike In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±281.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±281.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±281.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.12
20250.000.000.12
20260.000.000.12
20270.000.000.12
20280.000.000.12

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CovingtonVIRGINIA51967
DawsonALABAMA41998
DearmanvilleALABAMA41980
Smyer LakeALABAMA42003
Smokey JctTENNESSEE41997
YoungtownALABAMA32021
BirminghamALABAMA21992
MentoneALABAMA22006
LakeviewALABAMA22023
StevensonALABAMA22002
CartersvilleGEORGIA21979
Davis CrossroadsGEORGIA22019
Corryton RdTENNESSEE21988
Mt OliveTENNESSEE21995
Allens BrdgeTENNESSEE21994
Star TanneryVIRGINIA21985
EdinburgVIRGINIA21972
JeromeVIRGINIA21984
RioWEST-VIRGINIA21974
TradeALABAMA12016
SummittALABAMA11980
Pine GroveALABAMA12013
Sunny EveALABAMA11991
GreensportALABAMA12003
Mt OliveALABAMA12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.