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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Loggerhead Shrike In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGrassland birds

Loggerhead Shrike in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has fallen sharply in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Loggerhead Shrike In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.064.0
20272.00.034.0
20282.00.004.0
20291.90.003.9
20301.90.003.9

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CarlisleLOUISIANA221988
BrousvilleLOUISIANA102025
WilsonARKANSAS92025
BlodgettMISSOURI92025
LaroseLOUISIANA81992
River RoadLOUISIANA82025
Morgan CityLOUISIANA71986
FrogmoreLOUISIANA62025
DelhiLOUISIANA62021
CommerceMISSISSIPPI61993
EudoraARKANSAS52016
KeystoneLOUISIANA52013
BerwickLOUISIANA52018
Hickory RidgeARKANSAS42022
ConcordLOUISIANA42019
Morgan CityLOUISIANA42022
ShelbyMISSISSIPPI42025
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI41994
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI42025
WhittonARKANSAS31985
AugustaARKANSAS32001
SaffellARKANSAS32017
LafeARKANSAS32022
KelsoARKANSAS32016
ShawLOUISIANA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.