BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Loggerhead Shrike In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Loggerhead Shrike in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has fallen sharply in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Loggerhead Shrike In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.114.1
20262.10.074.1
20272.00.044.0
20282.00.014.0
20292.00.004.0

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CarlisleLOUISIANA221988
ShelbyMISSISSIPPI112024
BrousvilleLOUISIANA92024
WilsonARKANSAS82024
LaroseLOUISIANA81992
Morgan CityLOUISIANA71986
FrogmoreLOUISIANA62024
DelhiLOUISIANA62021
CommerceMISSISSIPPI61993
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE62023
EudoraARKANSAS52016
KeystoneLOUISIANA52013
BerwickLOUISIANA52018
Hickory RidgeARKANSAS42022
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA42022
ConcordLOUISIANA42019
Morgan CityLOUISIANA42022
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI41994
BlodgettMISSOURI42024
WhittonARKANSAS31985
AugustaARKANSAS32001
SaffellARKANSAS32017
LafeARKANSAS32022
KelsoARKANSAS32016
ShawLOUISIANA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.