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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Loggerhead Shrike In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Loggerhead Shrike in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has collapsed: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-98%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has collapsed in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Loggerhead Shrike In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1244.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1244.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1244.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.4
20260.000.001.4
20270.000.001.4
20280.000.001.4
20290.000.001.4

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Town BluffTEXAS121990
Burr FerryLOUISIANA62004
Mer RougeLOUISIANA52008
FillmoreLOUISIANA51989
StarkARKANSAS42000
CypressLOUISIANA41987
Fort PolkLOUISIANA41975
IndianolaOKLAHOMA42024
De RidderLOUISIANA32019
BlancoOKLAHOMA31987
MatoyOKLAHOMA32000
Union HillTEXAS32007
Locust BayouARKANSAS22001
Coal HillARKANSAS21994
HavanaARKANSAS22013
EnterpriseLOUISIANA22024
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA22013
ChandlerTEXAS22004
Neches BithTEXAS22016
Old MiloARKANSAS12002
RamseyARKANSAS11997
StampsARKANSAS12023
HopeARKANSAS11999
AshdownARKANSAS12001
CrowsARKANSAS11988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.