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Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Loggerhead Shrike In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Loggerhead Shrike in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-88%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
165Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has collapsed in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Loggerhead Shrike In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±179.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±179.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±179.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.61
20260.000.000.61
20270.000.000.61
20280.000.000.61
20290.000.000.61

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ash CreekMINNESOTA531991
Sni MillsMISSOURI81990
BolckowMISSOURI81992
Trading PostKANSAS72024
ThrallKANSAS61970
MelroseKANSAS52021
PeoriaOKLAHOMA52022
WainwrightOKLAHOMA52013
MelroseILLINOIS41986
Rock ValleyIOWA41982
ChandlervillILLINOIS31973
AthensvilleILLINOIS31982
College SpgsIOWA32004
PiersonIOWA32003
GalesburgKANSAS32024
LaplandKANSAS32018
LongtonKANSAS32021
FilleyMISSOURI32024
SticklervillMISSOURI32024
LacledeMISSOURI32024
New PointMISSOURI31995
CollinsvilleOKLAHOMA32021
Mill CreekILLINOIS21990
HolcombILLINOIS21991
ComptonILLINOIS21982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.