BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Loggerhead Shrike In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Loggerhead Shrike in Oaks and Prairies has collapsed: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-95%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has collapsed in Oaks and Prairies: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Loggerhead Shrike In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±337.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±337.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±337.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.6
20260.000.001.6
20270.000.001.6
20280.000.001.6
20290.000.001.6

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DuranTEXAS191999
DallasTEXAS61997
Wolfe CityTEXAS51987
BeggsOKLAHOMA32023
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA31977
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA32024
Arenosa CrkTEXAS32019
Glen RoseTEXAS32000
BrucevilleTEXAS32010
TatumsOKLAHOMA21998
SchroederTEXAS21996
LockhartTEXAS22024
Lone OakTEXAS22022
Oak GroveTEXAS21999
GauseTEXAS21997
OakwoodTEXAS21995
KosseTEXAS21993
GrafordTEXAS22005
AlbanyTEXAS22024
Miller GroveTEXAS22012
SadlerTEXAS22013
RhomeTEXAS22024
Mount ZionTEXAS22024
CleburneTEXAS22017
Whit Mtn.TEXAS22010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.