BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Loggerhead Shrike In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGrassland birds

Loggerhead Shrike in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-91%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
116Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has collapsed in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Loggerhead Shrike In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±189.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±189.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±189.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.001.2
20270.000.001.2
20280.000.001.2
20290.000.001.2
20300.000.001.2

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WeinertTEXAS121994
GordonNEBRASKA82025
Beloit 2KANSAS62017
CookietownOKLAHOMA62006
BelvidereNEBRASKA52014
Crescent LkNEBRASKA52012
ShieldsTEXAS52001
HawleyTEXAS52007
ChapmanKANSAS41981
CovertKANSAS42024
LoganKANSAS42022
SurpriseNEBRASKA42008
BartlettNEBRASKA41976
MullenNEBRASKA42017
KanopolisKANSAS32025
AlmeriaNEBRASKA31992
Berwyn 2NEBRASKA32016
WakitaOKLAHOMA32016
ChesterOKLAHOMA31988
ColdwaterKANSAS22017
BuckeyeKANSAS22014
MinneapolisKANSAS22019
JewellKANSAS22005
Jewell 2KANSAS22021
BeloitKANSAS22002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.