BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Loggerhead Shrike In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Loggerhead Shrike in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-64%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Loggerhead Shrike In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 0.90 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.07–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 0.90 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.07–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.142.4
20271.20.132.4
20281.20.112.3
20291.20.092.3
20301.20.072.3

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PecosTEXAS192017
CrowleyCOLORADO162024
GruverTEXAS152016
Prospect ValCOLORADO142000
Adams Co.COLORADO112022
DaltonNEBRASKA112025
BennettCOLORADO92025
MaljamarNEW-MEXICO81977
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO82022
ChugwaterWYOMING82024
Mica ButteCOLORADO71987
GilpinCOLORADO72025
BethuneCOLORADO72016
LoganNEW-MEXICO72025
WinkTEXAS71986
Last Chance 2COLORADO62024
WaverlyCOLORADO52018
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO51997
BoyeroCOLORADO42017
VillegreenCOLORADO42024
CaprockNEW-MEXICO42024
SkellytownTEXAS42009
CactusTEXAS41994
BriggsdaleCOLORADO32025
Wildhorse LCOLORADO32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.