BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Loggerhead Shrike In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGrassland birds

Loggerhead Shrike in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-77%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Loggerhead Shrike has collapsed in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Loggerhead Shrike In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 86% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-86%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Loggerhead Shrike in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 86% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.160.001.1
20270.130.001.1
20280.110.001.1
20290.080.001.0
20300.060.001.0

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Loggerhead Shrike in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glen CanyonUTAH92025
SeligmanARIZONA72024
JensenUTAH72025
HuntARIZONA62018
BasinCOLORADO52024
Cane Spr DesUTAH52011
BlandingUTAH52025
Lake PowellUTAH52009
Gilson Butte 2UTAH52018
Sybille CynWYOMING52025
KaibitoARIZONA42019
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO42016
HanksvilleUTAH42024
HiteUTAH42025
CanyonlandsUTAH42025
The GapARIZONA31976
Cow SpringsARIZONA32017
NageesiNEW-MEXICO32025
CorreoNEW-MEXICO31982
CounselorNEW-MEXICO32023
Corona EastNEW-MEXICO31995
Salt LakeNEW-MEXICO32001
Salt Lake 2NEW-MEXICO32025
Willow CreekUTAH32024
Green RiverUTAH32009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.