BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Little Blue Heron In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Tamaulipan Brushlands has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-34%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Little Blue Heron in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Little Blue Heron In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 68% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+68%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±138.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 68% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.160.000.51
20270.160.000.51
20280.160.000.51
20290.150.000.51
20300.150.000.51

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KingsvilleTEXAS91992
CatarinaTEXAS32000
ProgresoTEXAS22011
ZapataTEXAS11987
EncinalTEXAS12000
George WestTEXAS12017
HondoTEXAS12025
RaymondvilleTEXAS12024
LaredoTEXAS12015
MillettTEXAS12012
HeidelbergTEXAS12022
Millett 2TEXAS12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.