BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Little Blue Heron In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-52%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Little Blue Heron in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Little Blue Heron In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±124.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.11
20260.030.000.11
20270.030.000.11
20280.030.000.11
20290.030.000.11

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SinepuxentMARYLAND41975
WalnutMARYLAND42005
NortheastMARYLAND31972
ElktonMARYLAND22018
ViennaMARYLAND21987
Severna ParkMARYLAND21991
GreenwichNEW-JERSEY21974
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY22006
QuinbyVIRGINIA21995
MysticCONNECTICUT11987
Mt PleasantDELAWARE12010
WilmingtonDELAWARE12014
FrankfordDELAWARE11972
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE11975
Bethany BchDELAWARE11975
MiltonDELAWARE11974
BlackbirdDELAWARE12009
Tall TimbersMARYLAND11975
MillingtonMARYLAND12000
EastonMARYLAND12012
HongaMARYLAND12000
MadisonMARYLAND12014
CokesburyMARYLAND12021
NewarkMARYLAND12023
Snow HillMARYLAND11973

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.