BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Little Blue Heron In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Appalachian Mountains has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-70%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Little Blue Heron in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Little Blue Heron In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.02
20260.000.000.02
20270.000.000.01
20280.000.000.01
20290.000.000.01

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SummittALABAMA21981
Smyer LakeALABAMA21986
DrummondALABAMA22003
RiversideALABAMA22007
TradeALABAMA11967
Pine GroveALABAMA11995
GreensportALABAMA12024
OdenvilleALABAMA11996
BrooksvilleALABAMA11986
TalladegaALABAMA12022
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA11973
CanadensisPENNSYLVANIA11978
Peru MillsPENNSYLVANIA11972

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.