BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Little Blue Heron In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Little Blue Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Little Blue Heron In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 6.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±172.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 6.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025110.0023
2026110.0023
2027110.0023
2028110.0023
2029110.0023

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RamahLOUISIANA702024
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI352018
MayflowerLOUISIANA292024
BerwickLOUISIANA282018
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA172024
Morgan CityLOUISIANA151986
ShawLOUISIANA152024
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE141994
KraemerLOUISIANA132024
KeystoneLOUISIANA122013
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI122024
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI112021
GillettARKANSAS92024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA82024
KelsoARKANSAS72014
GibsonLOUISIANA72019
EudoraARKANSAS62016
AugustaARKANSAS61999
SaffellARKANSAS62009
Rayville 2LOUISIANA62024
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI62024
UlmARKANSAS52022
WilsonARKANSAS51996
Augusta 2ARKANSAS52011
Morgan CityLOUISIANA52022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.