BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Little Blue Heron In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Little Blue Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Little Blue Heron In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 171% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+171%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±172.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 171% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026100.0022
2027110.0022
2028110.0022
2029110.0022
2030110.0022

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI352018
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA292025
BerwickLOUISIANA282018
MayflowerLOUISIANA192025
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA172025
RamahLOUISIANA162025
Morgan CityLOUISIANA151986
ShawLOUISIANA152024
KraemerLOUISIANA152025
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE141994
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI132025
KeystoneLOUISIANA122013
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI112021
River RoadLOUISIANA82025
KelsoARKANSAS72014
GibsonLOUISIANA72019
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA72025
EudoraARKANSAS62016
AugustaARKANSAS61999
SaffellARKANSAS62009
WilsonARKANSAS51996
Augusta 2ARKANSAS52011
Morgan CityLOUISIANA52022
UlmARKANSAS42025
RayvilleLOUISIANA42008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.