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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Little Blue Heron In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-92%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Little Blue Heron has collapsed in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Little Blue Heron In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.002.5
20260.000.002.5
20270.000.002.5
20280.000.002.5
20290.000.002.5

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NatchitochesLOUISIANA271991
DerryLOUISIANA191989
PoyenARKANSAS142006
EastonLOUISIANA141990
Poyen 2ARKANSAS92011
Derry 2LOUISIANA92024
FillmoreLOUISIANA61989
HollywoodARKANSAS51998
Flat CreekLOUISIANA52007
PocolaOKLAHOMA52006
OakdaleLOUISIANA41994
NatchezLOUISIANA42024
EvelynLOUISIANA42024
Lake CoveLOUISIANA42018
CanadianOKLAHOMA42003
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA42021
Bon WierTEXAS42024
Lance Rosier BithTEXAS42017
RamseyARKANSAS31996
CypressLOUISIANA31987
De QuincyLOUISIANA32017
Pine PrairieLOUISIANA31997
CrowsARKANSAS21986
StarkARKANSAS22005
NanceARKANSAS22006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.