BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Little Blue Heron In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-89%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Little Blue Heron has collapsed in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Little Blue Heron In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±763.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±763.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±763.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.080.000.34
20250.070.000.34
20260.070.000.33
20270.070.000.33
20280.070.000.33

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GalesburgKANSAS212006
RockinghamMISSOURI81996
WelchOKLAHOMA62015
PeoriaOKLAHOMA52007
ColumbiaILLINOIS32023
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS32015
GildehouseMISSOURI21986
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA22005
BelleviewILLINOIS11985
JamestownILLINOIS12012
St MorganILLINOIS12022
Mt VernonILLINOIS12006
OlneyILLINOIS12000
MelroseKANSAS11993
NorborneMISSOURI12016
CollinsvilleOKLAHOMA12005
WainwrightOKLAHOMA12006
ForakerOKLAHOMA11992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.