BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Scaup In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Waterfowl

Lesser Scaup in BCR 4 has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-44%Since 1986
28Routes In Region
40Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Lesser Scaup in BCR 4. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Scaup in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.395% range
±68.4%Backtest error
19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.110.001.4
20260.080.001.4
20270.050.001.4
20280.020.001.3
20290.000.001.3

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Lesser Scaup in BCR 4.
Koyukuk Riv.ALASKA161995
MaclarenALASKA82024
Birch LakeALASKA72005
Mud RiverALASKA72021
Paxson LakeALASKA71997
Kanuti LakeALASKA62024
MonahanALASKA52015
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA52017
ChistochinaALASKA42008
Mccarthy Rd2ALASKA42023
Lake LouiseALASKA32011
Nabesna RoadALASKA32015
CantwellALASKA22010
ToklatALASKA21999
Nicholai SlALASKA22022
ColdfootALASKA22003
Unalakleet RiverALASKA22013
Kanuti CanynALASKA22007
Galena (Short)ALASKA22000
KuskulanaALASKA22019
CircleALASKA12024
SlanaALASKA12024
NorthwayALASKA12023
Kenny LakeALASKA12019
SourdoughALASKA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.